Cautious politician as he
was, he did not permit himself to indulge in any over-confidence, but
then, as always before, showed unusual skill in estimating political
chances. Thus he wrote about a week after the Chicago convention:
"So far as I can learn, the nominations start well everywhere; and, if
they get no backset, it would seem as if they are going through."
Again, on July 4:
"Long before this you have learned who was nominated at Chicago. We know
not what a day may bring forth, but to-day it looks as if the Chicago
ticket will be elected."
And on September 22, to a friend in Oregon:
"No one on this side of the mountains pretends that any ticket can be
elected by the people, unless it be ours. Hence, great efforts to
combine against us are being made, which, however, as yet have not had
much success Besides what we see in the newspapers, I have a good deal
of private correspondence; and, without giving details, I will only say
it all looks very favorable to our success."
His judgment was abundantly verified at the presidential election,
which occurred upon November 6, 1860. Lincoln electors were chosen in
every one of the free States except New Jersey, where, as has already
been stated, three Douglas electors received majorities because their
names were on both the fusion ticket and the straight Douglas ticket;
while the other four Republican electors in that State succeeded.
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